Friday, February 03, 2012

election politics behind the early withdrawal

The early withdrawal of US and French troops from Afghanistan is contributing to the claim Taliban are making. there argument has been the west lacks a coherent and comprehensive value system. the values such as human rights are just hoax and has no real impact on Afghan lives. which has proven true, the establishment of democracy and human rights costing Westerners hundereds of bilions of dollars have not made Afghanistan a more just place than any other least developed country. yet another blow is the withdrawal of US troops before the schedule to the credibility of any moderation in Afghan society. this is marked as another  betrayal of  Afghans especially those attempting harder. This hurried withdrawal will not give the Western world the isolationist peace of mind it craves, not just because abandoning these people to the Islamist butchers will weigh heavily on its conscience. I would imagine the situation in 2012 and especially in 2013 could go from bad to worst. 

The decision is above all based on election tactics, President Barack Obama's solution to leave troops there, just not in combat roles, until 2014 is also something of an insurance policy if Afghanistan descends into chaos. But the timing of the US and French withdrawals from combat is less than ideal. It is no coincidence that the retreat comes as presidential elections loom in both countries.
In France, the death of four French soldiers last week has made the war a hot campaign issue, while in the US Mr Obama has been under heavy pressure for more troop cuts. Political considerations are finally taking centre stage in the conflict. Politics can be this simple, even if some of the politicians at the State Department and the Western liberals refuse to accept this. 
The tragedy is that they have little to do with stability in Afghanistan. I am also disappointed that even the final policies before the withdrawal does not indicate an understanding of Afghanistan. Democracy and human rights will fail in a society that has survived without these attributes for 3000 years. Re-educating the population requires parallel values, not a view of the world that sees in every non-Muslim an 'enemy of the true God'. the US current policy is to make peace with the most extremest of these people and continue to impose democracy by funding Karzai government. Taliban and Karzai are key problems of instability in Afghanistan yet we don't understand how to deal with each. tolerance of the corruption spearheaded by President Hamid Karzai have allowed the Taliban to return to power. replacing Karzai with a stronger leadership that is not born out of consensus and can tackle corruption should be one of the options. the west should not be negotiating with Taliban not only because the group is against equal rights and education for girls and women but for pragmatical reasons. we should have learned from the history that we can not make friends with fanatics, they are unreliable and prone to erratic outburst of violence. The US plans to release five Guantánamo prisoners to make friends with taliban and aid the negotiations Washington has been engaged in for weeks with the Taliban. The goal is an agreement that will placate Karzai's government and the guerrillas. I don't think the west doesn't realise they can't be making friend with fanatics they couldn't find any human way to deal with but had to lock them up in secret prison and subject them to torture for a decade. this only means one thing and that is that the west is not interested any longer in stability in Afghanistan but a way out.  the contents of a confidential Nato report were made public according to which the Taliban are sure they will be able to reconquer the country. Nato is playing down the significance of the document, but it could be that Washington's negotiations are simply aimed at preventing the Taliban from capturing major cities after 2013 and when western troops are in the country and also to reduce the number of casualties.