Friday, October 29, 2004

kabul security

The reason they are called terrorists is because they are trying to terrorize people, if we start to freak out it is exactly what they want us to do.

You are terrorized when you confuse precaution with unnecessary restriction and panic.
They want you to stop thinking. Terror and confusion brings two things, it either breaks you down (happens most of the time) or gives you reasons and strength.

One is confused and terrorized when you establish restrictions which you can't stick to; like xian and david's ideas, every Int'l should go out with an Afghan or they shouldn't leave homes for a certain period of time; these are not precautions because you can't follow it.

you are broken when you don't think what the issue is and how to set up plans to deal with it.
you are broken when you establish unnecessary restrictions. terrorists usually organize cluster attacks to confuse and terrorize people. But kidnapping can't be organized clustery it is not like smuggling a lot of explosives into the town. the moment a kidnapping happened the security organization goes on alert and another one is very unlikely to happen.

The reason I think it was a very organized thing is , why it happened in Kabul, if they wanted to kidnap foreigners they could have ambush them when they are going to Paghaman or somewhere else for partying.

Also kidnapping election workers should be more than a coincidence.
Precaution is usually taken to minimize the amount of risk. How far are you willing to go with that? Even 1% risk is too much far a paranoid person; what if you are at the wrong time in the wrong place? By coming to Afghanistan every foreigner should take (I don't know maybe) 5% risk.

Minimizing 5% risk is panicking. You could analyze the amount of abduction likelihood by playing around with the number of foreigners in Kabul, and the number of kidnapping in the last two years and half. I bet the number will be very small.
You could also find more data like how many of kidnapping was done by taxi drivers? To enable you to decide whether foreigners should take taxi or not; And etc.
if you want have more fun you could match the percentages against other normal risks; like getting killed in a traffic accident in NY.

Saturday 0940hrs:
it shouldn't be a surprise, but it could be. Staff breaks the rule. Hugo, Saira and I went to birds street in a Taxi and climbed the TV mountain. I would say its more important to train people how to handle a kidnapping situation, conflict management, negotiation skills than setting up rules which we know people won't observe.
It's also definite that the kidnapping was a deliberate plan.
Let's not forget a major factor setting up such restriction; which is called FUN. It's fun to panic.
If the security is bad, that how it is. We can only imporve it by doing our job in the best possible way. If you think you are afraid now, you are gonna be afraid if you want to be afraid you are afraid for the rest of you life.

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Random Thoughts in the last few days

  • Suppression brings either of the two things; it breaks people down (happens in most of the cases) or gives people reason and strength to stand up.
  • i wonder if people in the peaceful situation know what the war cost Afghans, two millions deads, 7 million refugees.... how could people know the price being paid by individuals in chaos, agony, terror and bloodshed if they never been to Kabul.
  • freedom of information (freedom of expression + freedom of listening) is............ the touchstone of all the freedoms.
  • civilzations/Empires were not brought down by outside forces, they were destroyed by internal weaknesses. ..... Media globalization is a bad thing.
  • A marriage is perfect with the marriage of the hearths, minds and sex.

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

random thoughts

  • technological media is the best way for civil soceity groups to interve in political process and bring peace to war torn countries where former enemies must live together in close proximity.
  • Norwegians breath deeper when they are agreeing with you.

"Cultural sensetivity to certain things changes over time and that creates a new perception; names for sensitive things should change. e.g. Condomes" Lyndal Barry, what do you think a new good name could be lyndal?