Thursday, May 21, 2015

EU expanding further east into former Soviet Union

Today the EU held Eastern Partnership summit in Riga to discuss further expansion east into the former Soviet Union, at the time of lingering uncertainty about the future of the UK in the European Union and the nature of the long due reforms within the EU.

The European Union is already overstretched, new members such as Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia did not integrate well; Croatia is mired in crisis. The Balkans, which is poised for membership, the process is moving between back and forth. The EU-colony of Kosovo is faced with mass emigration, in Macedonia there is political chaos with armed gangs capturing towns and it was only a week ago when 23 people died in clashes between heavily armed gangs and security forces. 

Its called Eastern Partnership countries, but there is very little in common among them, only that they are former Soviet Republics, and that they strive to west. The desire to be western is so paramount for these countries that any obstacle to its actualisation is seen as an enemy. Many believe that Russia is such an obstacle and as such a threat to the nation. Russofobien yet another factor among the eastern partnership; this is not enough for partnership with these countries but recipe for trouble with Moscow.

The strength of EU comes from the strength of its member states and one of its strong members is the UK which is renegotiating its membership with the Union. The focus of the UK on hard economic benefits – for example, in advancing the single market, reducing bureaucratic burdens, or pushing for trade liberalisation as a healthy balance against too much focus on political integration or on European-style state interventionism has been beneficial to the Union.

Recently many have seen this positive role of the UK diminish, with a much greater focus on the UK domestic policy agenda and a high distrust of the EU among British policy makers and, increasingly, the British public. Even in areas where the UK in the past would have been a champion for European solutions, e.g. enlargement policy or the digital single market, there is a tendency of disengagement.

As the role of the western countries diminish in the EU any further expansion eastward will change the nature and identity of the European Union. The former Communist countries of the EU are active members of the EU and carry more weight in contrast with their size and strength, any further eastward expansion will shift the centre of power in the EU from the West to Eastern Europe. Under the current EU voting system Eastern Europe already has significant power. Germany, France and the UK combine have a population of 217 Million and a nominal GDP of close to US$ 10 Trillion and a total vote of 87 in the European council while Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia which pretty much cover all of Easterner Europe have a combined nominal GDP of US$1.3 Trillion and a population of 70 million have a total combine vote of 96. Any future accession from the east will shift the power of EU votes to the East despite the candidate countries being small and medium income.

There are three important implications for the EU policy. 
first, the EU will become more Russofobien, as the Euro barometer study of EU attitude toward Russia shows that eastern European countries are the most Russofobiske countries in Europe. furthermore the candidate countries have deep Russian complex. 

Second, the EU will become more xenophobic as there is strong anti-immigration sentiment in the Eastern Europe. A PEW study shows that 60% of population in Czech Republic is against immigration and there has been slightly over 1100 asylum applications in 2014 while that figure for Germany is over 220,000.  This is while Czech Republic is the most prosperous of all Eastern European countries.

third, the EU will become less coherent and influential as the institutional strengths and economies of member states diverse, the western nations will seek to curb immigration from the east and south states which will put the free movement pillar at risk.   

The dangers of conflict with Russia, weak national institutions within the EU, weakened EU and deterioration of human rights within an expanded union might or might not be clear to Brussels bosses, but what is clear is where to find new markets and play geopolitics. 

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

the GDP figure does not illustrate the difference between the countries and not a real portrayal of real wealth.

Unknown said...

I use the nominal figure because national strength is not measured in PPP but in real figures, an aircraft carrier costs an aircraft carrier everywhere.