Today the EU held Eastern Partnership
summit in Riga to discuss further expansion east into the former Soviet Union,
at the time of lingering uncertainty about the future of the UK in the European
Union and the nature of the long due reforms within the EU.
The European Union is already
overstretched, new members such as Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia did not
integrate well; Croatia is mired in crisis. The Balkans, which is
poised for membership, the process is moving between back and forth. The EU-colony of Kosovo is faced with
mass emigration, in Macedonia there is political chaos with armed gangs capturing
towns and it was only a week ago when 23 people died in clashes between heavily
armed gangs and security forces.
Its called Eastern Partnership countries, but there is very little in common among them, only that they are former Soviet Republics, and that they strive to west. The desire to be western is so paramount for these countries that any obstacle to its actualisation is seen as an enemy. Many believe that Russia is such an obstacle and as such a threat to the nation. Russofobien yet another factor among the eastern partnership; this is not enough for partnership with these countries but recipe for trouble with Moscow.
Its called Eastern Partnership countries, but there is very little in common among them, only that they are former Soviet Republics, and that they strive to west. The desire to be western is so paramount for these countries that any obstacle to its actualisation is seen as an enemy. Many believe that Russia is such an obstacle and as such a threat to the nation. Russofobien yet another factor among the eastern partnership; this is not enough for partnership with these countries but recipe for trouble with Moscow.
The strength of EU comes from the
strength of its member states and one of its strong members is the UK which is renegotiating
its membership with the Union. The focus of the UK on hard economic benefits –
for example, in advancing the single market, reducing bureaucratic burdens, or
pushing for trade liberalisation as a healthy balance against too much focus on
political integration or on European-style state interventionism has been
beneficial to the Union.
Recently many have seen this positive
role of the UK diminish, with a much greater focus on the UK domestic policy
agenda and a high distrust of the EU among British policy makers and,
increasingly, the British public. Even in areas where the UK in the past would
have been a champion for European solutions, e.g. enlargement policy or the
digital single market, there is a tendency of disengagement.
As the role of the western countries
diminish in the EU any further expansion eastward will change the nature and
identity of the European Union. The former Communist countries of the EU are
active members of the EU and carry more weight in contrast with their size and
strength, any further eastward expansion will shift the centre of power in the
EU from the West to Eastern Europe. Under the current EU voting system Eastern
Europe already has significant power. Germany, France and the UK combine have a
population of 217 Million and a nominal GDP of close to US$ 10 Trillion and a
total vote of 87 in the European council while Poland, Czech Republic, Romania,
Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
which pretty much cover all of Easterner Europe have a combined nominal GDP of
US$1.3 Trillion and a population of 70 million have a total combine vote of 96. Any future accession from the east will shift
the power of EU votes to the East despite the candidate countries being small
and medium income.
There are three important implications
for the EU policy.
first, the EU will become more Russofobien, as the Euro barometer study of EU attitude toward Russia shows that eastern European countries are the most Russofobiske countries in Europe. furthermore the candidate countries have deep Russian complex.
Second, the EU will become more xenophobic as there is strong anti-immigration sentiment in the Eastern Europe. A PEW study shows that 60% of population in Czech Republic is against immigration and there has been slightly over 1100 asylum applications in 2014 while that figure for Germany is over 220,000. This is while Czech Republic is the most prosperous of all Eastern European countries.
third, the EU will become less coherent and influential as the institutional strengths and economies of member states diverse, the western nations will seek to curb immigration from the east and south states which will put the free movement pillar at risk.
first, the EU will become more Russofobien, as the Euro barometer study of EU attitude toward Russia shows that eastern European countries are the most Russofobiske countries in Europe. furthermore the candidate countries have deep Russian complex.
Second, the EU will become more xenophobic as there is strong anti-immigration sentiment in the Eastern Europe. A PEW study shows that 60% of population in Czech Republic is against immigration and there has been slightly over 1100 asylum applications in 2014 while that figure for Germany is over 220,000. This is while Czech Republic is the most prosperous of all Eastern European countries.
third, the EU will become less coherent and influential as the institutional strengths and economies of member states diverse, the western nations will seek to curb immigration from the east and south states which will put the free movement pillar at risk.
The dangers of conflict with Russia,
weak national institutions within the EU, weakened EU and deterioration of human rights
within an expanded union might or might not be clear to Brussels bosses, but what is clear is where to find new markets and play geopolitics.
2 comments:
the GDP figure does not illustrate the difference between the countries and not a real portrayal of real wealth.
I use the nominal figure because national strength is not measured in PPP but in real figures, an aircraft carrier costs an aircraft carrier everywhere.
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