Karzai: a psycho or an April fool joker

I thought karzai is pulling a Prank yesterday, it was funnier than his usual notes - after all it can be an April fool joke. Then I realized that he was dead serious. This government is a joke if he was not kidding yesterday. I had a bad day yesterday, I had to look for a place for half an hour to park my car and then the guards outside some house called after I parked and left; saying we will crush your windows and tear down your doors. Literally all streets are impounded by someone and blocked. This whole city feels like a psycho house and Karzai just complete the organogram as the head of nutters.

Karzai accused all foreigner of blackmail, fraud, bribery, threat and vast misconduct during presidentially election he singled out Peter Galbraith and the EU mission head Gen Phillippe Morillon of being involved in a plot to put a puppet government in power. He mentioned foreign embassy, MPs and congressmen trying to bribe Mr. Najafi and Lodin to swing votes.

Karzai talked about an organised plot by foreigners to rule Afghanistan. in this conspiracy he added, their military, industry, finance and media play central roles. he added "foreigners tried to bribe IEC staff with money, used threats and their New York times printed hostile article at their order, so they can change the fate of Afghans".

He said 'a foreign embassy called Mr. Najafi with directions… they also said if he fail to follow he will make his way toward his grave.' Then Najafi presented his resignation which karzai refused. The question is: Why are you the president of a country whose highest electoral officials are being threaten, harassed and forced by some embassy. Why did you keep it quiet for four and a half months? As a leader I think you have to do something about it and what are you going to do about it. Leadership comes with the responsibility to be constructive and refrain from cultural urge for whinging. Karzai needs to evaluate presidential election and ensure integrity of parliamentary elections. This is not even close to how this clown thinks. He made absurd claims to sensationalize public opinions and this is a power game. Mr Karzai is currently locked in a power struggle with parliament over his attempt to appoint all the monitors in Afghanistan's election process. Karzai's comments come a day after the Afghan parliament rejected his attempt to have an all-Afghan body monitoring elections.

Karzai's suggestion that foreigners would organise electoral fraud was "absurd"; especially after what he did; mass fraud which is well proven by many sources. It is even more absurd to see karzai stamp on next election being funded by the same foreigners. It was a few weeks ago he asked the UN to provide technical assistance in general area of organization. His regime is incapable of funding, planning and undertaking the election. Why is the international community playing along with this baby? He once again shows how reliable he could be as a ally.

Offsetting Bribery

It has been three weeks since I decided to pay electricity, yet unsuccessful. it took me a week to find out how exactly to pay electricity bill; this is my first time, my bad is telling me that the payment mechanism has improved tremendously. Bribery has changed the culture of state sector but also people in general; people have become less helpful even in comparison with five years ago. On an upside note it is interesting to see how such changes can be deeply rooted over a short period of time. I had to go to the right meter box and then the right power junction and after that to the right electrician for my street, etc. Finding all this in a new neighborhood is hard and traditionally you rely on peoples' good manner and attitude to help you out. But these days people just wouldn't bother much to help out a stranger. They want to see what is their personal benefit in it. Life has become as dull as everyone is so concerned about how they could monetarily benefit from something. Monetary income has also become a determinant of statue. There is the public obsession at different tiers to worry about financial status of others; starting from a brother at family tier to politician at the government tier. People have lost interest in doing things because it is fun, nice or interesting.

Corruption breaks down social fabrics and functioning of the society. I was getting help because there was no recognized reason for them to take money from me; just giving information is not good enough to get bribed. But also I didn't know any of the guy at the power station. Another negative effect of corruption on state sector has been strengthen tribalism. You have to know somebody even to be allowed in the office. It is already a compounded problem – *corrupted tribalism* and it is only getting worst. People bundle up in blood relationships, interest groups, mates, gangs, mafia and etc to suck money out of the society. The believe is, you can only make money if you do it the wrong way and this belief is reinforced by living proofs. People who make money don't usually have good reputation and doing things the right way seem to be reserved predominantly for suckers. The belief is that there is a lot of money around at the hand of people who don't know what to do with it. Which is absolutely true. Now everybody is getting creative to get some of this money. The idea of doing something useful with the money is as strange as questioning God. An old mate who has a big business was telling me people of minister and MP level visits him for a bonus from a large project when he gets one. Bribery is now history and the fashion of the day is extortion. People in power are more creative in corruption than the rest, as usual.

I am now thinking what could be possibly done countermeasure the negative social consequences of bribery. I believe there is nothing wrong with the mania to get rich. However, the glorification of status material such as car, house and money to the extent that nothing is now considered bogus to gain them, is the problem. Changing the way people think about bribery is important in changing perception of corruption. I thought the concept of carbon offsetting can also be altered to bribe offsetting, carbon offsetting is well rehearsed in the west and at its root is also changing populous perception about a social demon.

Bribe offsetting is when individuals take bribe because they are in a position to facilitate, block, delay or hinder a public; they add to national corruption and social evils. bribeoffset offsets bribe takers (and bribe givers) by funding someone else to be clean and NOT take bribe. This neutralises the harm and unfairness that could happen when lower level staff try to extort from the most unfortunate, and leaves the bribe taker (and bribe giver) with a clear conscience.

Can officials offset all their bribery?

First officials should look at ways of reducing their bribery. Once they've done this they can use bribeoffset to offset the remaining, unavoidable bribery.

A bribe offset is a financial instrument aimed at a reduction in administrative corruption and subsequently all the social evil it causes. There are two markets for bribe offsets. In the larger, compliance market, companies, governments, international organisations or other entities buy bribe offsets in order to comply with caps on the total amount of bribe they can allow to happen due to organizational failure to detect. There is also much smaller, voluntary market, individuals purchase bribe offsets to mitigate their own contribution from bribe taking or bribe giving. For example, an individual might purchase bribe offsets to compensate for the bribery action caused by be in a position to take bribe or induced to give bribe. We will also offer companies, government, international organization and other entities with the option to offset bribery as an up-sell during the work process so that employees, clients and other stakeholders can mitigate the bribery related with their work or service (such as offsetting bribery related to a car taxation, electricity bill, police checkpoint, employment etc.) for example an international organization contracted by USAID to build 40 hospitals up-sell 40 bribe offsetting certificate related to 40 hospitals. The organization then reduces a small sum from all staff salary to finance upsell bribe certificate. Alternatively the organization can charge a premium to Afghan subcontractors who receive the contract to do the field work.

Offset is achieved through financial support of projects that reduce bribe taking. Officials and staff who are in a position to take bribe but think they can resist will be sponsor by a bribe offset.

The idea is based on carbon offsetting that is a well rehearsed approached and that has gained some appeal and momentum among the public who have become aware and concerned about the potentially negative environmental effects of energy-intensive lifestyles and economies. The Kyoto Protocol has sanctioned offsets as a way for governments and private companies to earn carbon credits which can be traded on a marketplace. The protocol established the clean development mechanism (CDM), which validates and measures projects to ensure they produce authentic benefits and are genuinely "additional" activities that would not otherwise have been undertaken. Organizations that are unable to meet their emissions quota can offset their emissions by buying CDM-approved Certified Emissions Reductions. However, some critics object to carbon offsets, and question the benefits of certain types of offsets. Offsets are viewed as an important policy tool to maintain stable economies. One of the hidden dangers of climate change policy is unequal prices of carbon in the economy, which can cause economic collateral damage if production flows to regions or industries that have a lower price of carbon - unless carbon can be purchased from that area, which offsets effectively permit, equalizing the price.

Bribe offsetting may be more feasible and convenient alternatives to reducing one's own bribery affect.

The key problem for the approach is openness. Bribe giver offsetting certificate is more important than the takers. How can we get them to sign up. Any thoughts?

Here are some:

The rational is openness should start with high ranking officials to set open precedence.

Getting as much as possible evidence on dealings, asset and property prior to sign up high ranking official can be useful.

There has got to be some way to deal with the officials who hide corruption for instance they can remain anonymous.

In addition to bribe takers bribe giver can also offset.

We find match for bribe offset projects. The certificate holder can choose person in which sector should receive the money, police, judge. etc.

more random thoughts on cellphone project

Last couple of months I have been working on using cellphone in media and business communication. Most of the people I put the idea to is going, "but is this going to work in Afghanistan?" which basically means I don't like what you are saying but I find no way to hand you a bunch of better refutations. I have met with senior staff in charge of private sector support initiatives and they are so clueless about their job that they can't offer anything substantiating and constructive.

However, market uncertainty is a valid concern; so far in building Afghanistan and its private sector the players had dodged it. Aid agencies and NGOs just like to give goats or dig wells or drainage for Afghans. You think more than cattle as an afghan and your sanity is questioned. They look at you as though you suffer concussion; I spent half an hour the other day to practice turning my saliva into foam. Not doing good yet but I don't think I need it if I could get people to take the project seriously.  I think one way I could do that is to do a market assessment. Nonetheless, I have a big concern, I am all for doing market assessment for a new brand of tea but when you are combining two sectors, i.e. market connection and cellphone then using classic market assessment methodology will not prove a thing and wrongly disprove ideas such as iBazar (I mentioned it in my previous post). Moreover, the perceived level of complexity required by iBazar sellers and buyers might also foster unfavorable response. iBazar do present new market channels but the response to such a new phenomena in business especially when it is brought by technology is negative. Six years ago when I was telling people to do radio they were mocking me. Not even a handful of Afghans believed it will work. They could never believe that radio could be done without gigantic infrastructure or content could be produced without president decree or advertisement could bring revenue or … etc.

In the process of pitching cellphone related project ideas some aspects of Afghanhood seem sharper than ever before; and how it is niggling into the newly created business cramp. We are brought up to be conformative to the social and individual regime imposed on us but at the same time we are dreadfully egoistic. The roots for the problem can be traced to our early childhood. Most fathers ignore, disrespect and beat their children from the age of only a few months old and then their mothers console them. Children grow to be suppressed on the one hand but overcomforted on the other by their own mothers. Mothers tightly grip to children because they have no man to show affection, husbands pay no heed to their feelings.

Most Afghans do not have an in-depth understanding of their surrounding but comprehend from a single dimension. They are not fun because they cannot get to change perspective and look from different perspectives because they fanatically cling to certain values of their existing paradigm. The egoist and conformative individual understand and perceive the world from his perspective. The past is about what he did and how he did it. The present is what he thinks. He gives monologues; shows little willingness to hear and evaluate new ideas; communication is confrontational. Things are changing in the last few years people get to learn the social skills to communicate with others easier and they develop curiosity or copy cut curiosity to make their character more attractive. They shine better and function more successfully but at the end their understanding of the issues change little to the initial doctrines inserted by the society. Below the surface of communication and social interaction they remain the same people. In the business world they are easier to deal with but you cannot put a lot of trust in them because they are no better than the ME, ME, ME guy. They are slicker and can pretend better which are phony qualities added to the initial ignorance. But there is something very important to know about socially easy conformists who don't act and function like the rest of their compatriots. There are actually people who have understanding of the realities or are sincere and truthful in their views and self recognition.

Trading and market information with cellphone

Market linkages are critical for creating a trading area for small entrepreneurs, shopkeepers, sellers and businesses in Afghanistan. In order to create market linkages sellers need to identify their potential customers. Identifying their customers and reaching them is the daunting challenge for micro entrepreneurs in Afghanistan. Reaching the customer requires marketing and infrastructure. Many micro entrepreneurs even cannot afford to set up a place to sell. Many roadside sellers would be better off if they could set up a delivery system but if they are off the street they lose the limited number of customers. Hundreds of foreign agencies hand out things like a sewing machines and a couple of weeks of training. That woman with the sewing machine will never be able to find customers. My latest preoccupation has been to create a structure for economic activities in the face insecurity, limited mobility and crushing poverty.

I am designing cellphone business, simple enough to be used by low literate Afghans. In this project, we will focus on using cell phones, especially via SMS/MMS, but also voice, to create a market place where sellers can send product information and buyers can search for the lowest price with a reasonable quality. After finding the proper product information with the seller's contact information, buyers and sellers can finish the transaction. iBazar will have a web interface too; having an online credit card to iBazar gateway. The project will pilot in Kabul for three months and expand to six regional cities within a year. the scheme below shows how it works.

I am seeking investors and funders for this project and quite rightly many asks if this thing is actually going to work. The key effect on the will to invest is conditioned by factors namely; market demand conditions and market maturity. It will make it easier to invest in my proposal if demand and market uncertainties are low. There is a benefit for investing in- what I call- iBazar at this stage when market demand condition is almost impossible to determine or will cost as much as setting up the project. Investing in a market of uncertainty and demand indication will enable iBazar to enjoy economies of scale and scope in long run to maintain the profitability. iBazar as an early entrant will be well established in the market.

Demand uncertainty is predominantly exogenous because it is widely assumed that consumers' lack precedence for such a service therefore low confidence in attempting to use it, this is a valid point and has been tackled well in our marketing plan under outcome number three.

When we are talking about whether Afghan market is ready for iBazar we are inevitably asking the question of what is the level of certainty in the mobile market. mobile phones have been around for six years now, some 9 million Afghans are using them. To turn iBazar into a success we target a substantial number who are well informed and aware about features of cellphones and relative benefits; plus our marketing is designed to engage cellphone users which we find the best way to inform.

Demand uncertainty is not going to result in failure for iBazar because that is only certain in monopolistic cellphone market competition; Afghanistan has at least five large telecommunication operators with a very healthy and vibrant competition.

Another factor which reduces iBazar demand uncertainty is price. There is no initial cost for iBazar customer to start participation. They will not buy new devices or medium to connect but use handsets which are multi-functional device and already owned. The cost of use is low too. At the initial stage the eMobilizer (both voice and text) will be toll free to facilitate network diffusion.

Mobile phones are often used not only for work –essential communication tool - but also for entertainment and pleasure… missed call is a good example. It is probably one of the single acts which could have various different meanings. It means how are you? It means let's take a walk or... missed call which is the most basic feature of cellphone have been turned into something very useful and recreational.

perceived playfulness plays a significant role in the developing the intention to use as well as the attitude toward iBazar. iBazar is a simple platform which could be used to mean many different things. Additionally, system quality is inherently relevant to the model, many people will become reluctant to use iBazar if they experience frequent delay in response, frequent disconnection, lack of access, errors and poor security. The recognition of this point means system quality will be given enough attention.

A core question when assessing user attitude formation is why would an Afghan use iBazar? not from commerce or communication viewpoint but merely attitude.

Utilization of mobile products and services holds a far greater meaning than simply the purchasing of mobile handsets, sending message to Afghan Star, calling friends, buying ringing tones, flashy light and etc. Indeed, the consumption of mobile services is to a greater degree seen as a means of self expression, individual identity-formation, creativity, or even art. Using mobile technology, consumers express their identity by personalising the appliance itself through design, size, ringtones, logos and screensavers; as well as the actual use of the various available mobile voice and text products and services.

SMS messaging is by far the most popular mobile data service both domestically and worldwide. In 2008 more than 140 billion SMS messages were sent world-wide, demonstrating the service as an ideal subject in the examination of mobile data consumption meanings. As with asynchronous text-based such as traditional email services, SMS messaging is valued because it allows users time to select, craft and edit the personality they present. Studies have shown that consumers develop new and deeper relationships through the use of SMS messaging.

Overall, the identity-building aspect of mobile use is the most revealing aspect of the technology's effect on consumer behavior. Studies reveal that many view their mobile devices as essential elements of the intimate, personal space, having integrated them as part of their own identity. Through the use of SMS messaging, consumers can construct their own virtual identity, free from the physical restraints of everyday life. Afghans, in general, are industrious people. Working hard to make a better living for their family which is a source of pride and pride is a central value of Afghanness. Afghans are diligent when no monerary reward is expected to help out friends or a common fellow. Diligence is encouraged and laziness is frowned on strictly. Hard work is a quality of good person. Creating an arena for business combines a key element of daily life with working class and entrepreneurial self expression.

Another important issue is when the venture is going to be actually start making money. Enterprises that are resolving strategic market chain bottlenecks are very lucrative. There are great profits to reap at various segments of supplying market chain connection. Certain aspect of market chain connections, such as market information and communication, are hard to monotise. This is perhaps the second biggest contributor, after lack of physical infrastructure, for fragmented markets and loss of millions in Afghanistan.

Should iBazar be charging buyers or/and sellers? The premise is simple: iBazar charge for the right to post product on the eMobiliser and for make asynchronous searches with an off-line cellphone possible. Product posting creates disproportionate amount of value for buyer and sellers in comparison to iBazar. For instance, let's evaluate agribusiness sellers. Farmers are only growing a small quantity of seasonal crops, such as onion or watermelon; enough for the family consumption and to sell at local Bazaar or a whole buyer but it is never large enough to cause major losses if it is not sold. Agriculture in Afghanistan is flactuating; at certain season there is plenty of onion but for almost 10 months the price goes up to 400% higher. At the season the farmer can not sell to enough people who can conserve or consume at large quanitity either at household level or business; due to lack of market connection. The onion farmer can benefit tremendously from iBazar. the basic law of capitalism compel to ask how will iBazar benefit.

It is pivotal quesiton: should iBazar open-platform orchestrators get compensated for adding value to user entreupreners? And would monetary incentive systems spur more value creation or possibly taint the dynamics that have made participatory communities, say ebay, google, paypal and hundreds of others, successful.

This seems like a simple question but to answer I look at successful participatory platforms; specifically at those which like our proposed idea match buyers to the sellers and vice versa such as gumtree, craiglist and many smaller ones. These companies have long been in the business to establish successful ecosystems.

I also want to say there are systems of value other than, or in addition to, money, that are very important to people but espicially Afghans: connecting with other people and markets (espicially for women and other marginalised groups), creating a business identity, not least, garnering other people's attention. iBazar –indeed Afghanistan- would be a much poorer place without the collective generosity of its contributors. The culture of generosity is the very backbone of the iBazar.

i expect to profit from iBazar, and profit handsomely if we can. We emphasize the need to build the largest network possible first, and it has been proven that the profits will soon follow. It sounds a little like dot-com logic, but the difference is that iBazar provide an envrionment for experimentation, and then seize on the things that users find valuable. The key to this is openness. Put profits first, and we will cripple the network we are building.

iBazar as a market chain connection and cellphone enterprise will be built openly and as big and as fast as possible; this will ultimatly put us in the best position to figure out where the real economic value is. Google built the world's most popular and useful search engine, and eventually became an ad company. Skype built a free phone service, and eventually sold it to eBay. Craiglist built a free classified –ads community, and is turning a healthy profit – while killing tradational publishers – with its comparatively low-cost job ads. The main reason for thoroughly piloting the project is to assess cash-flow and revenue generation forecasts, tested wherever possible upon the market and take into account each of the revenue streams.

Three key points stand out from my business model. First, all applications of a new technology go through an evolutionary process in which a period of early experimentation gives way to shakeouts, and then the truly viable business models emerge. Second, radical decentralization and openness create tricky environments in which to build genuinely viable business models – success lies in "closing up" the right parameters and monetary rewarding without destroying the characteristics of the system that make it innovative. Third, iBazar will only remain viable for as long as all the stakeholders are adequately and appropriately compensated for their contributions – we are not offering free ride forever.