Consider investing in commodity to diversify

Commodity markets are at a turning point given the economic situation and technological S curse we inhabit. 

Something to look out for is the oil price volatility. The oil price will be revised downward by electric vehicles which will happen around 2020. timing is key but impossible to pinpoint so investments ought to take it into general consideration and plan portfolios for long term gains.

To start an oil crash you don't need to replace all fossil fuel cars with EV but just a small segment of the 1 billion cars in the world. consider the oil crash of the 2014, it was caused by pumping just 2 million extra barrels a day. it was a crash caused by supply so if electric cars displace the 2 mill plus on the demand side it should also cause a crash.

This far is common sense but when will EVs be there Tesla is going from 50 thousand last year to 500 thousands by 2020. lets assume Tesla meets its targets and other manufacturers maintain the current combined market share for EV. each electric vehicle displaces 15 barrel of oil a year and we hit our benchmark target of 2 million barrels of oil displaced a day in 2023. that is the start of the crash and the crisis will follow in the years to come.

The impact of such crisis goes behind the commodity prices and will impact stock and bonds. trillions invested in fossil energy will be lost and trillions will be invested in new energy. stocks of BP, Shell and the likes will plummet and gains will be made in renewable energy stocks such as CVA and ABY.

The estimates are conservative and doesn't take into account expansion by all manufacturers, technology improvements, investment by challengers, quantum leaps and regulatory tax breaks. All this means the future will be here sooner than you might think. 

Book Review - Outliers by Malcom Gladwill

What is in the making of personal success

It's rather ironic use of the term outlier for the title. I do recognise it as a technical term as oppose to word as it signifies a specific concept in data analysis. Outlier takes centre stage in data science, concerned with an events or phenomena that fall outside the normal pattern. The book outlier is a refreshing outlook at a time when data science not only come to dominate virtual space but most contemporary literature concern itself with a sobering study of the subject.

The book deals with the broader context of collective contribution, a concept not new at all and acknowledged and documented in the work of most geniuses such as Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein. The book adds its twist by combining it with how the Western culture view success and its contemporary drivers. The book debunks the misconception that success is an outcome of personal achievement but rather a mix of a string of opportunities, concerted effort of communities and families, luck, dedication and a quirky take on the world.

The book is an eye opener to rigid individualism and how viewing success in those terms are not only false but dangerous. We do live at a time which offers great opportunities and unprecedented potentials but they are only few and it’s important to be aware of how we view the majority who are unsuccessful. We view our system in a sentimental way that it rewards hard work with astonishing success and wealth, this is false the truth is that it only rewards one billionaire Bill Gates and one billionaire Richard Branson and nobody else can have that opportunity and if Bill Gates was not born in 1955 plus another series of lucky events the opportunity would have gone to someone else and only them. This leaves the reader ponder about our system where the successful and rich get only richer and the poor and unsuccessful get poorer. Unable to cope with its own contradiction our policy and politics had reverted to the primitive and nasty habit of assigning blame which should have no place in modern policy. The poor and immigrants have been blamed but this didn’t bring any change and now the turmoil is spiralling out of control threatening the whole liberal system.

 

After dealing with what produces successful people the book naturally turns to understanding the role of culture, the framework that moulds us and shapes our consciousness and subconscious. Our culture gives us strength but it can also constraint us. When the Korean Airways have a record of crushes that is 17 times more than other western industrialised countries and the pattern continues over 1980s while everything else is held equal then studying the Korean culture and the social structure it imposes might contain answers. We are squeamish to do that because the way we talk about culture is unscrupulous and since most cultural ideas are ill-informed such discourse are often disparaging. East Asians continually and consistently achieve higher grades in international math scoring competitions. I'm not talking about achievement by margins but significant that can be represented by standard deviation. When all else is held equal such difference can be explained by culture which goes hundred and thousands of years back to rice cultivation. if you want the full relationship between rice and math then you should read the book.

This book makes a lot of sense to me, I know several fellow Afghans who are extremely talented, educated and driven but yet they make less money, unable to travel or take jobs they qualify while a British Citizen with below average intellect and high school dropout makes more money ( several fold), free to travel and access to diverse occupational opportunities. This modern system surely rewards other things as well beside personal stamina and talent.

Absence

Over branch of hope the bearings found

Over matter stringed together my lead found

Over the bodily impasse of being 

I long for abyss some portal may found

استحکام اعتبار در هویت بی وطنی

ما که از قید وطن بیگانه ایم
چون نگه نور دو چشمیم و یکیم
از آلمان و چین و افغانیم ما
در جهان مثل می و مینایم ما

تا نژاد و نسب بود مشرق تا به مغرب بود 
تا وطن و یثرب بود آمل و مقتدر بود
امتیازات نسب را پاک سوخت
آتش عشق این خس و خاشاک سوخت
چون گل صد برگ ما را بو یکیست
عشق است جان این نظام و یکیست
شور عشق در نی خاموش من
می تپد صد نغمه در آغوش من
در تپید دمبدم آرام من
گرم تر از صبح محشر شام من
ابر عشق است و من بستان او
تاک من نمناک از باران او
چشم در کشت محبت کاشتم
از تماشا حاصلی برداشتم
خانه عشق از هر عالم خوشتر است
خندان شهری که آنجا دلبر است

کیفیت ها خیزد از صبهای عشق
هست هم تقلید از اسمای عشق
عاشقی؟ خوش آمدی به شهر ما

ملکی آزاد از همه تقلید ها
اندکی اندر حرای دل نشین
ترک خود کن سوی عالم گزین
محکم از شوق شو سوی خود گام زن
لات و عزای هوس را سر شکن
لشکری پیدا کن از استکبار جهان
جلوه گر شو بر سر مارقان عشق